[SMM Analysis] Review of Sheets & Plates Market During Labour Day Holiday in 2025 and Outlook After the Holiday

During the Labour Day holiday, the prices of hot-rolled coil (HRC) in major cities across China remained stable.

Figure 1 - Trend of the most-traded HRC contract

On the first day after the holiday, in the east China market, quotes in Shanghai and Zhangjiagang remained stable compared to before the holiday on a WoW basis, with a weak market inquiry atmosphere. In the Ningbo market, spot cargo was quoted at 3,240-3,250 yuan/mt at the end of the trading day today. Market trading performance was moderate, with end-users mainly adopting a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and traders showing poor enthusiasm for shipments.

In the south China market, on the 6th, spot cargo in the Lecong market was quoted at 3,290-3,300 yuan/mt at the end of the trading day, rising slightly by 20 yuan/mt compared to before the holiday on a WoW basis. However, overall trading performance was weak, mainly due to the shortage of certain specifications in the local market. During the holiday, traders mostly raised prices for shipments, with moderate shipment volumes. Therefore, they stood firm on quotes after the holiday, suppressing overall trading volume.

In the northern market, on the 6th, the overall trading performance of HRC in the major northern markets was moderate. In Tangshan, spot cargo was quoted at 3,220 yuan/mt at the end of the trading day, remaining stable compared to before the holiday, with a moderately weak market trading atmosphere. In the Shenyang market, spot cargo was quoted at 3,260 yuan/mt at the end of the trading day, also remaining stable compared to before the holiday, with weak HRC trading performance.

In the cold-rolled and galvanized sheet market, on the 6th, Bensteel Group's cold-rolled DC01 1.0 in Shanghai was quoted at 3,700 yuan/mt, dropping slightly by 10 yuan/mt compared to before the holiday. Market trading conditions were relatively similar to those before the holiday, with moderate overall trading.

Table 1 - Comparison of sheet & plate prices in major domestic markets during the Labour Day holiday

Looking ahead, as we enter May, according to the latest SMM survey, the impact from maintenance on domestic steel mills' HRC production is expected to increase slightly compared to April on a MoM basis. However, considering the recent weakening of cold-rolled product orders and profit margins, some steel mills have already taken or plan to take actions to switch from cold-rolled to hot-rolled production. It is expected that domestic HRC supply will continue to fluctuate at a medium-to-high level in May. On the demand side, short-term export resilience remains strong, while domestic demand is expected to decline slowly. However, current inventory levels are still relatively low compared to the same period in the past three years. Overall, the imbalance between supply and demand in the short-term HRC market is low. It is expected that prices will continue to fluctuate rangebound, with the fluctuation range of the most-traded hc2510 futures contract expected to be 3,170-3,280.

Figure 2 - Total HRC inventory